Propensity to Move Data vs. Standard Off Market Targeting?

It’s no secret, available stock is currently at its lowest since 2008, a real headache for estate agents at the minute.

With just over 172,000* properties listed for sale across the UK, property supply remains relatively low in comparison to demand.

TwentyEA Hero Banner blog images (1)-1

While the property market has always been competitive amongst buyers, with properties now selling within a matter of days, agents are in a rat race like no other to get their hands on stock.

As the market continues to evolve, being equipped with the right proptech solution couldn’t be more important. Right now, a tool which can provide exclusive access to properties not currently on the market, enabling agents to win those all-important new instructions through targeted, automated marketing campaigns is not a ‘nice to have’, it’s a must-have!


Is there a better answer to Off Market lead generation?

Well thanks to TwentyEA, there most definitely is!

Read on to find out how our ‘one-of-a-kind propensity to move’ model, Forecast, is a cut above the rest in comparison to other ‘off-market’ solutions available to agents.


Forecast combines AI and machine learning to predict properties likely to come to the market

Despite many homeowners still wanting to move house, a lot are currently holding off listing their property.

Why is that? It’s simply the fear that as there is little on the market, they will struggle to find their next home.

For many estate agents, targeted ‘off-market’ prospecting is a key way of not only finding potential vendors, but also helping clients to find their next home. A double win in terms of getting hold of more stock.


But how does a ‘propensity to move’ model work?

Using clever data algorithms, Forecast by TwentyEA is the only solution that identifies properties that are likely to instruct soon.

Combining machine learning and traditional analysis techniques, Forecast, analyses local data at a granular level, meaning we take the guesswork out of off-market prospecting for you.

We look at hundreds of different data points around the property itself, the people living in it and the local market. Many of the criteria that are the only selection options in other ‘off market’ tools, have already been built into Forecast, such as:

  • How long the owner has lived in the property
  • How old they are
  • Whether the property has been withdrawn from the market in the past
  • Whether a sale has fallen through but the property has not gone back up for sale

Taking all of this and more into account, we can give every UK property a score as to how likely it is to instruct in the next six months.

This forms our Forecast audience, which means you save time and most importantly money only targeting those potential vendors most likely to instruct.


That’s incredible! But it sounds complicated. Is it easy to use?

I’m glad you asked.

Using Prospect 2.0 from TwentyEA, estate agents can send effective off-market prospecting campaigns using the Forecast audience in under 5 minutes.

Forecast enables you to reach out to prospective vendors and inspire them to list their property by letting them in on how many buyers have registered interest in a property like theirs, which puts your agency at the front of the queue for securing that instruction.

It can also be used as an instruction winning tool by offering a bespoke ‘home finding service’ to help your clients find properties that are likely to come to the market which match what they’re looking for.

Agents can run regular direct mail campaigns to the Forecast audience, targeting even further by selecting only properties in their ‘sweet spot’ in terms of price or location, before automatically printing and posting their letters or postcards through the Prospect platform.

Many ‘off-market’ prospecting tools offer simple filtering options such as targeting by length of residency or council tax band and while this is a step up from traditional blanket mailing campaigns, it’s still ineffective and does not give a strong ROI.

All of the criteria that an agent would have to apply themselves in other off market datasets, are already built into the Forecast audience. This is then combined with hundreds of other data points that might increase their likelihood to move – are they a young couple with a baby living in a small flat, or someone who is recently divorced living alone in a large house with lots of equity?

Essentially, we use data science to find you your next instructions through low-cost, high-return marketing campaigns.

We can even tell you which properties are likely to instruct where you were the last agent to sell their home, a perfect way to gain new business from people you already know – your previous buyers!


Sounds too good to be true?


Let’s stack it up against traditional mailing campaign performance in 2021…

Blanket Canvassing

Only 4.8% of residential properties instructed in 2021, so you would need to target 21 properties to reach one instruction!

4.8 percent

20:20 on Completions

Only 4.3% of properties instructed within 20 properties either side of a completed sale, so you would need to target 23 properties to reach one instruction!

As you can see, this is worse than blanket canvassing!

20:20 on SSTCs

8.7% of properties instructed within 20 properties either side of an agreed sale, so you would need to target 11 properties to reach one instruction.

8.7 percent

TwentyEA Forecast

16.3% of the properties in the Top 10% of the Forecast model came to the market in 2021, so you would only need to target six properties to reach 1 instruction.

I think I know which tool I would be using.

If you’re tired of losing out on instructions because your competitors get there first, talk to us about how Forecast can get you in the room with potential vendors before anyone else.

Get in Touch


For more information, or to learn more about our property market insights, then please contact Emmanuel Opanuga, (Our Growth Marketing Manager for Estate Agency Services) at

Posted on

23/03/2022 by Emmanuel Opanuga

Get in touch